Shoreline Realities: A Situational Analysis of Coastal Impact Zones in Gubat, Sorsogon, Philippines

Abstract

This study examines how geostatistics play a vital role in analyzing geospatial models, interpreting risk patterns, and identifying land use policy areas. It aims to assist policymakers, community leaders, and stakeholders in visualizing the 1-km coastal impact zone, which is measured as a buffer zone extending both inland and seaward from the shoreline, to enhance understanding of coastal risks. By using hotspot analysis and binning techniques within GIS, the research identifies high-risk areas for coastal hazards. Coral reefs and mangroves, which serve as natural barriers, have low-risk scores due to their wave attenuation effect that protects the coastlines. The study highlights significant risk scores and vulnerabilities in coastal barangays (villages) in the Municipality of Gubat, Sorsogon, Philippines. It evaluates about 7,350 hectares that is nearly level with slopes ranging from 0-9%, making it particularly susceptible to storm surges hazards, tsunamis, storm surges, flooding, and liquefaction, balanced against natural barriers, while conserving 36 hectares of fish sanctuaries, mangroves, 16 hectares of seagrasses, 1,131 hectares stationary fishing ground or municipal waters, fishponds and other species in marine protected areas. The 1-km coastal impact area geospatial information model, spanning 3,647 hectares, reveals notable findings both inland and seaward from the shoreline. For the 1-km inland area (1,821.9 ha), it identifies 39% as a Cold Spot with 99% confidence in seascape resiliency, 9% as a Cold Spot with 95% confidence, 3% as a Cold Spot with 90% confidence, and a nearly flat area resilient to coastal hazards. For the area extending 1 km seaward from the shore, 43% is identified as a Cold Spot with 99% confidence in shore resilience, 3% in the outer impact area as a Cold Spot with 95% confidence, 3% with insignificant coastal risk, and 2% as a hotspot with 95% confidence in risk. These results underscore the model's effectiveness in assessing coastal hazards and identifying areas of varying resilience. Based on these findings, policymakers should leverage geospatial information models to create informed zoning regulations and engagement strategies that enhance coastal community resilience against hazards. In conclusion, integrating these geospatial information models with coastal community assessments and geostatistics underscores the necessity to sustain coastal management practices and proactive conservation efforts. Highlighting the shoreline's critical role, the study emphasizes the practical implications of using advanced geospatial tools, engaging communities, employing data-driven planning, and promoting sustainable development to effectively address climate change-driven coastal vulnerabilities.